The U.S.-China trade competition took investors’ attention during much of 2019, but that will likely be overshadowed by escalations between Iran and the U.S. in the current year, according to a political risk consultant, this Monday.
“I personally think Iran is going to be a more focused issue for investors this year than China-U.S.,” Alastair Newton, director of Alavan Business Advisory, told CNBC.
Newton, in his statement, predicted more retaliation from Iran after Tehran launched missiles at Iraqi bases housing U.S. troops last week in revenge for the U.S. killing of Iran’s top general Qasem Soleimani. He didn’t surely predict how Iran could retaliate in future, but other experts have expressed that Iran’s future moves could take in aggression by Iranian proxy groups in the region and cyberattacks.
According to Newton, relationships between Iran and the U.S. are “just going from bad to worse.” There have been no clues that these two countries could turn to diplomacy to resolve their conflict mutually. Alastair Newton’s comment came as President Donald Trump tweeted that he “couldn’t care less” if Iran decides to negotiate.
Tehran would not want to negotiate with Trump either, said Newton.
Alastair Newton further discussed his anticipation, saying Iranian authorities “are not going to talk with Donald Trump; instead, they will hope Donald Trump is defeated” in this year’s U.S. presidential election, and they face a Democratic Party administration to deal with.
Iran is still a significant threat
By all means, Iran stays a “significant threat” in the Middle East, even with street protests that broke out Saturday after the Iranian military confessed it had unintentionally shot down a Ukrainian airliner, killing all 176 people on board.
“There should be no uncertainty … that authorities will crack down if they realise that the regime is facing a genuine threat,” Newton said. He pointed out that the Iranian regime has a previous record of “ruthlessly putting down protests” and will do so another time if required.
Alastair Newton explained that the downing of the Ukrainian passenger aircraft could end in a leadership adjustment within Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, allowing the opportunity for a younger generation of officers trained by Soleimani to take over.
Newton said Qasem Soleimani was “a particularly ruthless personality” but “outstandingly good” in military affairs. He told CNBC that younger officers who have modelled themselves after Soleimani could quickly come to the scene, enabling the elite Quds Force to bounce back.
Overall, “I think Iran’s Foreign Legion … remains a significant threat in the region, seeking the country’s long-standing objectives,” he said.